It was 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club which has just won 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
